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Chapter 08 - Elections and Campaigns

  1. Presidential versus Congressional Campaigns
    1. Elections have two critical phases—getting nominated and getting elected—and to win an election, one must develop a unique plan that would probably only work in the U.S.
    2. In getting nominated in America, individual effort is greatly needed, whereas in Europe, it’s a party try.
    3. Parties used to play a much bigger role in U.S. politics than they do now, where voters usually vote for a name, not a party (the opposite is true in most other Democratic nations).
      1. It used to be that party machines and/or caucuses could heavily influence or even select who their candidates would be, but with the decentralization of gov’t and the campaign reforms, campaigns have fallen more and more onto the candidates themselves, NOT the parties.
    4. Presidential and Congressional races are different in important ways:
      1. Presidential elections are bigger and more competitive than Congressional races, but in Congress, incumbents (people already holding office) have huge advantages over newcomers.
      2. During off years (no presidential election), much fewer people actually go out and vote.
      3. Members of Congress can take credit for successes (even if they don’t deserve it) and communicate with their constituents much more directly than the president can.
      4. Congressmen can deny responsibility for any messes or wrongdoings in Congress, since they tend to run as individuals, not as members of a party.
    5. At one time, riding the coattails of a popular president could get politicians into office; these people would try to attach their name to the popular president somehow and hope that the people, seeing such names together, would vote for that politician as well (that’s not the case today).
      1. As a result, Congressional elections have become independent of presidential ones, and Congressmen can be elected even though other, more influential members of their party have drastically lost popularity.
    6. In running for a presidency, one must “get mentioned,” or somehow have his/her name heard by the public, whether it is through the media, by making lots of speeches, by being associated with a famous piece of legislation, by being governor of a major state (New York, etc…) or by already being famous!
      1. It’s usually wise to set aside a lot of time to run for presidency, but some people have managed their campaigns while still holding office!
      2. It takes a lot of money to run a campaign (the wealthier candidate usually wins).
      3. A single individual can only give $1000 to a candidate, while a political action committee (PAC)—a committee set up by and representing a corporation, labor union, or other special interest group, can give up to $5000; to be able to get federal matching grants, one must raise at least $5000 from individual contributions of $250 or less in each of at least 20 states.
      4. Organization is required, as a staff of fund-raisers, lawyers, accountants, a press secretary, a travel scheduler, an advertising specialist, a pollster, and a direct-mail company must be hired and paid to organize campaigns, inform a candidate, write position papers (candidates’ opinions and positions used to answer media questions), and basically help a candidate.
      5. A candidate’s strategy and theme can be that which attacks an incumbent or that which announces a bold, new plan, but they have to have a tone (positive/negative), a theme, timing (advertise early, late, in the middle), and a target (groups of people).
  2. Primary versus General Campaigns
    1. The primary selects the nominees who will later run in the general campaign to get elected to office.
    2. To win a nomination, one must mobilize political activists who will give money, attend local caucuses, and do volunteer work.
      1. The Iowa caucuses are a real test for candidates, since those who do poorly are less likely to get attention and contributions from the media and the contributors (of course, Iowans may not be representative of the views of everyone else in the country).
      2. These caucuses don’t even resemble elections; they’re more like rallies.
    3. A problem for candidates is that they may sound very conservative in one state to get votes from there, but if they venture into a more liberal state, they may not get votes there because of earlier statements.
    4. Primary election voters can sometimes be more extreme than general-election voters.
    5. Elections used to involve parades, big rallies, and “whistle-stop” train tours where candidates would shake hands with people in high density areas (factories, shopping centers), but now, candidates mostly utilize the media, broadcasting their messages through paid announcements or commercials (called spots) or by being mentioned in a nightly news program (called visuals).
      1. Television probably has a much greater effect on primaries than on general elections, since there is less information on a candidate during a primary than during a general election.
      2. Plus, both (or more) candidates’ ads will probably cancel each other out.
    6. Being mentioned on the news is not easy, since one must do something that a reporter would think is interesting (visiting elderly folks, shaking hands with people in an unemployed line), but it is cheap and can be very useful in a political campaign.
      1. However, candidates must take care to do these actions where a news camera is most likely to capture them on camera.
      2. Ironically, news visuals give less information than spots, even though most people believe that the opposite is true!
    7. Debates can help in popularity, but generally, incumbents, who already have name recognition, do not debate newcomers because doing so just gives the newcomer more publicity.
      1. Nixon debated JFK in 1960 and Ford debated Jimmy Carter in 1976; Nixon and Ford lost.
      2. The big risk of debates and visuals is that one accidental slip of the tongue could cause the doom of a campaign, as the media rapidly focuses on that one mistake, regardless of the past.
        1. As a result, many candidates have “stock speeches” that are repeated over and over again at different locations to attract the centrist voter.
    8. Television has helped many “unknown” candidates make it into the national picture; Ross Perot made successful appearances on the CNN program “Larry King Live” and used half-hour slots (“infomercials”) to present his ideas and plans to the public.
    9. A candidate can use direct mail to be much more specific than on television because he is speaking to a much more specific group of people.
    10. The consequence of modern campaign running is that those who vote for one candidate now may work for another in a later election; the campaign process has become divorced from the governing process.
  3. Money
    1. Money can play a vital role in campaigning, but it alone may not always help a candidate win.
    2. Presidential candidates can get part of their money from private donors and part from the federal gov’t, while Congressional candidates must get all their money from private sources.
      1. The federal gov’t will provide matching funds that will give as much money to the candidate has he/she has raised through individual donors who’ve given $250 or less, each.
      2. The gov’t also gives a lump-sum grant to each PARTY to help pay for costs.
    3. Congressional candidates get money from many individual donors, and some use special fundraisers, like rock band concerts or benefit performances, to raise money quickly.
      1. Incumbents spend very little of their own money in elections, usually getting it from PAC’s and private donors, while their challengers usually spend a lot of their own money.
    4. In 1974, after the Nixon Watergate Scandal, Congress passed a new federal campaign finance reform law, creating a six-person Federal Election Commission (FEC) to enforce a tougher, new set of laws.
      1. Today, any individual contribution of $100 or more must be reported to the FEC.
      2. Corporations and labor unions cannot make contributions, but they can for PAC’s to do so.
      3. There is a $50,000 limit on how much candidates can spend if they accept gov’t funds.
      4. There are now laws against “independent” political advertising (NOT asked to advertise by a candidate or a political party); these are usually ideological groups attacking a certain person.
    5. There are loopholes through these laws, though:
      1. If a party spends money on local party activities, it can get that as much of that money anywhere it likes; such funds are called soft money.
      2. Small contributions from PAC’s or individuals can be bundled together at one time to increase the impact of the donation.
    6. Because PAC’s can contribute to campaigns, they have increased enormously. | Election reform has shifted power away from political parties and toward the individual. | The reforms give wealthy people the edge (as long as they don’t take matching funds, they can spend however much they want). | These reforms have given ideological candidates, who can use direct-mail to appeal to the emotions of people, more power and more advantage. | Reforms hurt those who start campaigning late because they have less time to raise all that money need. | Finally, the reforms help incumbents and hurt challengers, since incumbents can raise money from PAC’s and solo donors more easily than challengers can.
    7. In presidential races, money is not a big factor, since both candidates usually have the same amount, but in Congressional races, the challenger who spends more money usually does better than the one who spends less, and the incumbent who spends more can be more successful as well!
      1. Incumbents can send mail to constituents for free, raise money easily, and provide services for their constituents; challengers cannot.
        1. Thus, an overwhelming majority of incumbents win elections.
    8. Some people want to undo some of the 1974 reform laws, but this would be difficult and perhaps useless: the incumbents (the advantaged ones) make the laws, not the challengers, and limiting PAC contribution, shortening campaigning time, or providing free TV time for speeches could make little difference or even worsen matters.
  4. What Decides the Election?
    1. Party plays a strong part in determining whom people vote for, as some vote for candidates of their own party without completely knowing what the candidates’ stances are.
      1. On the other hand, some people who identify with a certain party do not vote that way.
    2. Issues can also play a part in determining who voters vote for: they are more likely to vote for a candidate who will make the voter’s life easier and better, even if the voter doesn’t know the issues affecting him/her that well.
      1. A citizen does not have to be informed on all the issues, only those that affect him/her.
    3. Prospective Voting requires a lot of information about issues and candidates because people examine the views of candidates and then vote for the one they think will hand the issues best in the future.
    4. Retrospective Voting involves looking back at how people have dealt with situations and then voting for a candidate, hoping that he/she will handle future issues similarly.
      1. It doesn’t need much information, just the memory of what’s gone on in the past.
      2. Retrospective voters win elections: in 1980, voters chose Ronald Reagan because Carter’s era had been highlighted by lots of inflation, and many wanted an alternative to Carter—Reagan just happened to be that alternative.
      3. Those incumbents who lose seats lose because of retrospective voting.
      4. Since 1860, only one election—1934—has gone by without the party holding presidential office losing Congressional seats.
    5. Some feel that retrospective voting is based on the economy (good economy, incumbents stay), while others believe that it is more complicated, but both have come up with ways to “forecast” presidential elections and predict the winners (Congressional races are a LOT tougher).
    6. Campaigns can make the difference in elections by reawakening partisan loyalties of voters, giving voters a chance to see how candidates handle pressure and giving candidates a chance to apply pressure (negative advertising), and letting voters judge the character and core values of candidates.
      1. People want to know how candidates will really act, not just what their position papers say.
      2. Thus, there is a tendency to focus on the themes and not on the details so that as many people as possible can be satisfied.
      3. Themes have changed from slavery in the 19th century to temperance and women suffrage at the turn of the century to abortion and moral topics in the 1970s and 80s.
    7. Today, the emphasis is on picking the “right” leader, not just one who will win, and the advent of primaries has helped to further this new cause.
      1. Since there doesn’t have to be a majority in a primary, single-issue groups (self-explanatory) can help give the winner that extra edge and those extra votes that he/she needs.
    8. In putting together a winning coalition, one must retain those committed partisans and attract those who can swing either way—the undecided voters.
      1. In examining the nature of parties’ voting coalitions, one can see what percentage of certain groups supported the Democrat or the Republican, or one can see how much of a party’s vote came from this or that group.
        1. The first shows group loyalty; the second shows group importance.
      2. Blacks are most solidly Democratic, while Jews used to but are now Republican; Hispanic voters usually vote for Democrats, but there are divisions within Hispanics (Cubans, Mexicans, etc…).
      3. Democrats have lost their hold on Catholics, Southerners, and union members, while Republicans still have strong loyalty from businessmen and professional people.
      4. Farmers have voted for the group that would/could make farm prices most favorable to them.
      5. Interestingly, Blacks, who are the most dependable Democrats, make up very little of the votes, while those that make up much more can be swayed much more easily.
  5. Election Outcomes
    1. Voters and candidates may only be concerned with who wins, but political scientists analyze the trends of elections and what they imply about the candidates, the system, and the fate of political parties.
      1. The Democrats and Republicans were very close in races from 1876-96, and then the Republicans became dominant, continuing to even today, except for the FDR years.
    2. Scholars have developed the theory of critical or realignment periods, when support for one party becomes very strong and lasts for long periods of time, due to change in issues and voters.
      1. Five realignments seem to have occurred so far at around 1800 (Jefferson takes over), 1828 (Jacksonian Democrats rise), 1860 (rise of Republicans and collapse of the Whigs), 1896 (Republican dominance) and 1932 (Democrats came to office under Franklin D. Roosevelt).
      2. Realignment can occur when a party is so badly defeated that they disappear (Federalists in 1800 and Whigs in 1860) or when one party just loses a lot of support (1860, 1896, 1932).
    3. In 1860, the Republicans came to power after having been formed four years earlier to combat slavery, and afterwards, they and the Democrats became stiffly opposite, with middle parties eliminated.
    4. In 1896, economics (depressions) gave Republicans the edge, with farmers supporting Republicans.
      1. The split was now between east and west, not north and south like after the Civil War.
    5. In 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression, the “New Deal coalition” was formed, headed by Franklin Roosevelt, uniting various Democratic factions and old supporters.
    6. Basically, realignment occurs when an issue of great importance causes to voters to shift their support from one party to another, because they think that will be for the best.
      1. Some have said that the election of 1980 was a realignment, but the Democrats still controlled Congress; however, the South has become more Republican lately, so that might be true.
      2. Yet, another realignment may NEVER occur again, just because party labels have lost their meaning to voters, and there’s more likely to be dealignment, not realignment!
    7. People voting a split ticket (Congressmen = same party as president) as opposed to a straight ticket have increased in recent years.
      1. In the 19th century, ticket splitting was unheard of because people basically voted for parties, not candidates, and since today, people vote more for the candidates than the party, it’s risen.
      2. Around the turn of the century, Progressives began urging states to adopt the office-bloc ballot or the party-column ballot where candidates were organized by the office they were running for, not by the party they were in, making it much harder to vote straight.
  6. The Effects of Elections on Policy
    1. Public policy may or may not remain the same regardless of the party of the office holder because while there are only two parties, each one is made up of a wide range of DIVERSE groups with many different interests and policies that they want to make used.
      1. In a parliamentary system with strong parties, an election w/ a change in parties can lead to a strong change in public policy, but in the U.S., that’s not always the case.
        1. A position issue has people take one side or the other in a debate.
        2. A valence issue has people debate on HOW an issue is to be resolved.
      2. In fact, in America, strong shifts in public policies have usually paralleled realignments.
        1. One exception is 1964, when mass election of Democrats gave rise to programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, federal aid to education and local law enforcement, two dozen environmental and consumer-protection laws, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and other massive, sweeping changes.
        2. In 1980, the voters brought in a much more conservative Congress, led by Reagan, who made cuts on many “excess” programs and tried to reduced spending.
    2. Elections CAN be important, as many promises actually ARE put into place.
      1. When there have been big differences in policy, most action seems to have been done (in law-making, etc…).
      2. People think elections don’t do much probably because public opinion and political parties enter a phase of consolidation and continuity between periods of rapid change.
        1. Even elections that occur during “normal” times can bring big effects (Ronald Reagan), but many times, they don’t do much either!
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Microsoft Office document icon Chapter 8 Elections and Campaigns40.5 KB
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US Gov and Politics
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US Gov and Politics

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